Wrong question.

Miami gets the magazine covers. Orlando gets the tourist dollars. But Tampa Bay? Tampa Bay gets the fundamentals right. And fundamentals are what keep your doors open, your rent predictable, and your patients coming back. I pulled the latest data across all three Florida markets, dug into the submarket numbers, and what I found confirmed what I’ve been telling clients for two years: Tampa Bay isn’t just competitive for wellness real estate. It’s outperforming on the metrics that actually matter.

Picture this. A physical therapy group is looking at three Florida markets for their second location. They pull up the data and here’s what they see:

Tampa Bay medical office vacancy sits at 6.6%. Miami’s at 5.8%. Orlando’s also at 6.6%. All three look tight compared to the national medical office vacancy rate of 9%. So far, so similar.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

Tampa leased over 1 million square feet of medical office space in the trailing 12 months—up 15% from the prior year. Miami? Down to 492,000 square feet, well below its pre-pandemic average. Orlando’s leasing activity dropped 15% year-over-year too. Tampa’s got the demand. And the people fueling that demand aren’t slowing down. The metro area just crossed 3 million residents and the broader Tampa Bay region is projected to add nearly 400,000 new residents by 2030. Pasco County alone—one of the fastest-growing counties in the state—recorded 75,000 square feet of positive net absorption while most other submarkets treaded water.

That’s not hype. That’s people voting with their feet.

But population growth alone doesn’t build a wellness market. Spending power does.

Florida is expecting 2.5 million new residents aged 65 and over through 2050. Roughly 500,000 of those are projected to land right here in Tampa Bay. That’s not just a housing stat—that’s the exact demographic that drives outpatient healthcare volume, med spa visits, physical therapy referrals, and longevity clinic memberships. Counties like Citrus, Hernando, Manatee, Pinellas, and Sarasota will have at least 1 in 3 residents classified as retirees by mid-century. Pasco and Polk aren’t far behind.

Now layer the spending data on top of that. The Global Wellness Institute’s latest report shows North Americans spend $6,029 per person per year on wellness—more than they spend out of pocket on healthcare, hotels, restaurants, clothing, education, or communications. The U.S. wellness economy hit $2.14 trillion in 2024, growing at 7.9% annually. (For context: the wellness market has doubled since 2013 and is projected to reach $9.8 trillion globally by 2029.) Tampa Bay has the exact population profile—aging, affluent, health-conscious—that turns those national spending numbers into local demand for wellness real estate. The demographics aren’t a trend here. They’re a structural advantage.

No state income tax. Pro-business regulatory environment. Year-round outdoor lifestyle that attracts the exact demographic that spends money on wellness. You’ve heard all that before.

Here’s what most people miss: In 2019, Florida repealed major portions of its certificate of need laws. That means hospitals, specialty medical facilities, and rehabilitation centers no longer need state approval to build new facilities or expand services. The red tape that used to take months—sometimes years—to cut through? Gone. And that regulatory shift has been quietly fueling new wellness facility openings across the state ever since.

For wellness operators, this matters more than you think. It means the barriers to opening your next location in Florida are lower than in most states. For landlords and investors, it means tenant demand for clinical and wellness space is being driven by policy, not just population.

Tampa Bay isn’t one market. It’s a collection of submarkets, each with a different story. And if you’re making real estate decisions based on metro-wide averages, you’re doing it wrong.

South Tampa / Westshore: The premium corridor. Medical office buildings are asking for rents north of $30 per square foot triple net—that’s $50+ with operating expenses. Proximity to Tampa General and St. Joseph’s Hospital makes this prime territory for specialty practices, concierge primary care, and high-end med spas. If you’re a landlord here, wellness tenants are your highest-value prospects. If you’re an operator, expect to pay for the address.

Wesley Chapel / Pasco County: The growth engine. Fastest-growing county in the region with 75,000+ square feet of positive net absorption while other areas went flat. BayCare, Tampa General, AdventHealth, and HCA are all competing for market share here. Where hospitals expand, wellness tenants follow. This is where I’d be looking if I were planning a multi-location strategy on a more realistic budget.

Brandon / East Hillsborough: The underappreciated middle. Solid demographics, growing residential population, and rents that make the math work for PT clinics, dental groups, chiropractic practices, and mental health providers. Not flashy. Consistent.

Pinellas County: The watch-and-wait zone. Recorded roughly 155,000 square feet of negative absorption in the trailing four quarters. Some of that’s from physician groups closing operations—not a demand problem so much as an operator quality problem. For investors, distressed situations here could create buying opportunities. For operators, proceed with sharper due diligence.

Tampa has 312,000 square feet of medical office space under construction right now. That sounds like a lot until you realize medical office makes up 65% of Tampa’s total office construction pipeline. Traditional office development has basically stopped. The biggest project in the pipeline? Orlando Health’s 120,000 square foot Medical Pavilion near their Bayfront Hospital campus.

Here’s the supply constraint that works in your favor: Many lenders now require significant preleasing (often 40–60%) before funding new medical office construction.  That means supply stays tight. And tight supply means pricing power for existing operators and property owners.

Constrained supply, growing demand. That’s the setup every real estate investor dreams about.

Tampa recorded $315 million in medical office sales volume over the past year—a 40% jump from the prior year. Medical office buildings are trading at $212 per square foot, compared to $176 for traditional office. And properties are selling at an average 88.9% occupancy, with cap rates averaging 6.8%.

And the demand side of the equation keeps getting stronger. Wellness real estate is the fastest-growing segment of the entire $6.8 trillion global wellness economy—growing at 19.5% annually since 2019. The categories investors care about? Personal care and beauty, physical activity, healthy eating, and traditional and complementary medicine (which now includes longevity and biohacking approaches like IV drips, cryotherapy, and infrared therapy) are all posting 5%+ annual growth. That’s not a fad. That’s a consumer spending pattern baked into how people live now.

Most of the deals are under $5 million—which tells you who’s buying. Owner-occupants and smaller private investors, not the big institutions. That’s your window. The institutional money hasn’t flooded in yet, but the fundamentals say it will. (And when it does, pricing may get a lot less friendly.)

I spent 26 years in the healthcare industry developing growth strategies before I ever touched a commercial real estate deal. And one thing I learned working inside health systems is this: the communities that grow the fastest don’t automatically become the best markets. The best markets are the ones where the infrastructure catches up to the demand.

Tampa Bay is in that sweet spot right now. The population is here—nearly 690,000 residents over 65 in the MSA alone, growing at almost 10% since 2020. BEBR projects Tampa Bay will absorb another 500,000 retirees by 2050. Those aren’t abstract numbers. Those are future patients. Future members. Future clients. And the wellness economy they’re feeding? It’s growing at 7.9% annually—faster than healthcare spending, faster than hospitality, faster than almost any consumer category you can name.

Whether you’re an operator scouting your next location, a landlord thinking about your tenant mix, or an investor underwriting your next acquisition—Tampa Bay’s fundamentals are doing the selling for you. The question isn’t whether this market works. It’s whether you’re positioned to take advantage of it before everyone else catches on.

I put together a Tampa Bay Wellness Real Estate Market Report with submarket-level data, rent ranges by property class, and the development pipeline details that didn’t fit in this newsletter. It’s the kind of thing I’d hand to a client before we start running comps.

➤ Download the Tampa Bay Wellness RE Market Report

Want to know what the data says about YOUR specific submarket? I do complimentary submarket analyses for wellness operators and property owners in Tampa Bay. No pitch. Just the numbers.

➤ Book a free Tampa submarket analysis

Until next week,

Leigh A. Brower

Fractional Chief Real Estate Officer

The Next Gen Dev | The Wellness Edition

The Next Gen Dev - Wellness Edition is your weekly briefing on the strategies and frameworks that separate wellness businesses building the future from those stuck in the past.