Let me start with a number that should get your attention: $1.5 trillion.

That’s how much commercial real estate debt is coming due by the end of this year. Not over the next decade. Not “someday.” By December 2026. Some estimates put it closer to $1.8 trillion.

If you own a wellness business, operate out of a leased space, invest in commercial property, or own a building with wellness tenants — this affects you directly. And most people in our industry have no idea it’s happening.

So today, I’m kicking off an 8-week series where I’m going to break the whole thing down in plain English. No Wall Street jargon. No confusing acronyms. Just the information you need to protect your business, negotiate from strength, and — if you’re paying attention, take advantage of one of the biggest real estate shifts in a generation.

Let’s dig in.

Here’s the simplest way I can explain it.

When someone buys or builds a commercial property, an office building, a shopping center, a medical office, they usually don’t pay cash. They take out a loan. But unlike your home mortgage, most commercial real estate loans aren’t 30-year fixed deals. They’re typically 5-, 7-, or 10-year terms with a big payment (called a “balloon payment”) due at the end.

When that loan term ends, the borrower has to either pay it off, sell the property, or refinance, basically take out a new loan to replace the old one.

That moment when the loan comes due? That’s a “maturity.” And right now, an absolutely enormous wave of these loans are all hitting their maturity date within the same window.

Think back to 2015–2021. Interest rates were historically low. You could borrow money to buy a building at 3–4%. Investors were buying properties left and right. Lending was flowing freely. Transaction volumes hit record highs in 2021 and 2022.

Now, fast forward. Those 5- and 7-year loans from the boom years? They’re all coming due at roughly the same time. And the world they’re maturing into looks nothing like the world they were born into.

Here’s the kicker: the average interest rate on new CRE loans right now is around 6.24%, compared to 4.76% on the debt that’s maturing. That’s a 150-basis-point jump. (Translation: if you’re refinancing, your monthly payment just went up significantly, even if nothing else about your building changed.)

According to S&P Global data reported by CRE Daily, roughly $936 billion in CRE loans are scheduled to mature in 2026 alone, that’s a 19% increase over 2025’s already-massive total. And a big chunk of what was supposed to mature in 2024 and 2025 got kicked down the road through loan modifications and extensions. The industry calls it “extend and pretend”, delay the problem, hope conditions improve.

Spoiler: conditions didn’t improve fast enough. And now all that delayed debt is piling into the 2026 window alongside the loans that were already scheduled to mature.

I know what you’re thinking: “I’m a MedSpa owner, why do I care about what’s happening with commercial real estate loans?”

Because your landlord’s financial situation directly impacts YOUR business. Here’s how:

If you’re a tenant: Your landlord may be under more financial pressure than you realize. When their loan comes due and refinancing is expensive (or impossible), they need stable, credit-worthy tenants to show the bank. That’s actually good news for you, it gives you leverage you didn’t have before. More on that in the coming weeks.

If you own your building: You may be facing your own refinancing challenge. But if your property is occupied by wellness tenants (which lenders love), you’re in a much stronger position than the office building owner down the street with 20% vacancy.

If you’re an investor or thinking about buying: Distressed assets are starting to come to market. Properties that can’t refinance will need to sell, and smart buyers are already lining up. According to PBMares, the volume of distressed CRE assets hit $116 billion in early 2025, a 31% increase from the year before. That number is only going up in 2026.

Not all commercial real estate is getting hit the same way. Traditional office space is in serious trouble, about 20% vacancy nationwide, with more than 80% of office CMBS loans categorized as high-risk for distress or restructuring. That’s a bloodbath.

But medical office? Wellness-aligned properties? Occupancy is sitting at around 93% nationally, with 42 metro areas above 95%. Tenant retention is close to 89%. And new construction is down significantly, which means supply is tight and getting tighter.

In other words: if you’re in wellness real estate, whether you’re the tenant or the landlord, you’re on the right side of this equation. Lenders want wellness tenants on their rent rolls. Banks are actively looking for the stability that healthcare and wellness operators provide.

And that creates opportunity.

Over the next two months, I’m going to walk you through everything you need to understand about this moment, and more importantly, what to do about it:

I’ve spent 26 years in healthcare, and I now read the same institutional research reports that Wall Street investors use. The difference? I translate it into what it actually means for the med spa owner, the PT clinic expanding to a second location, the dentist who’s been meaning to renegotiate their lease. That’s the gap I fill. And that’s what this series is about.

Here’s what I want you to do right now:

Want to talk about your specific situation? Book a complimentary 30-minute strategy session. I’ll give you a clear picture of where you stand.

Until next week,

Leigh A. Brower

Fractional Chief Real Estate Officer

The Next Gen Dev | The Wellness Edition

The Next Gen Dev - Wellness Edition is your weekly briefing on the strategies and frameworks that separate wellness businesses building the future from those stuck in the past.